「国际课程A-level·备考干货」经济学-解释经济增长的理论

Different models of economic growth stress alternative causes of economic growth. The principal theories of economic growth include 不同的经济增长模式强调经济增长的其他原因。经济增长的主要理论包括:

Mercantilism 重商主义 – Wealth of a nation determined by the accumulation of gold and running trade surplus 一个国家的财富由黄金的积累和贸易顺差决定。Classical theory 古典理论 – Adam Smith placed emphasis on the role of increasing returns to scale (economies of scale/specialisation) 亚当-斯密强调了规模收益增加的作用（规模经济/专业化）Neo-classical-theory 新古典主义理论 – Growth based on supply-side factors such as labour productivity, size of the workforce, factor inputs. 增长基于供应方因素，如劳动生产率、劳动力规模、要素投入Endogenous growth theories 内生增长理论 – Rate of economic growth strongly influenced by human capital and rate of technological innovation. 经济增长速度受到人力资本和技术创新速度的强烈影响Keynesian demand-side 凯恩斯的需求方 – Keynes argued that aggregate demand could play a role in influencing economic growth in the short and medium-term. Though most growth theories ignore the role of aggregate demand, some economists argue recessions can cause hysteresis effects and lower long-term economic growth. 凯恩斯认为，总需求可以在短期和中期内发挥影响经济增长的作用。尽管大多数增长理论忽略了总需求的作用，但一些经济学家认为，经济衰退会造成滞后效应，降低长期经济增长Limits to growth 增长的极限 – From an environmental perspective, some argue in the very long-term economic growth will be constrained by resource degradation and global warming. This means that economic growth may come to an end – reminiscent of Malthus theories. 从环境的角度来看，一些人认为从长远来看，经济增长将受到资源退化和全球变暖的制约。这意味着经济增长可能会结束--让人想起马尔萨斯的理论

Mercantilism 重商主义

Popular at the start of the industrial revolution, Mercantilism isn’t really a theory of economic growth but argued that a country could be made better off by seeking to accumulate gold and increasing exports.

重商主义在工业革命初期很流行，它并不是一种真正的经济增长理论，而是认为通过寻求积累黄金和增加出口，可以使一个国家变得更好。

Classical model 古典模式

Developed by Adam Smith in Wealth of Nations (1776), Smith argued there are several factors which enable increased economic growth 亚当-斯密在《国富论》（1776年）中提出，斯密认为有几个因素能够促进经济增长

Role of markets in determining supply and demand 市场在决定供应和需求方面的作用The productivity of labour. Smith argued income per capita was determined by “the state of the skill, dexterity, and judgment with which labour is applied in any nation” (Wealth of Nations I.6) 劳动生产率。斯密认为，人均收入是由 "任何国家运用劳动的技能、灵巧和判断力的状况 "决定的（《国富论》I.6）Role of trade in enabling greater specialisation. 贸易在提高专业化程度方面的作用Increasing returns to scale – e.g. specialisation we see in modern factories and the economies of scale of increased production 规模收益递增--例如，我们在现代工厂中看到的专业化，以及产量增加带来的规模经济

Ricardo and Malthus developed the classical model. This model assumed technological change was constant and increasing inputs could lead to diminishing returns. This led to the gloomy predictions of Malthus – that the population would grow faster than the world’s capacity to feed itself. Malthus under-predicted the capacity of technological improvements to increase food yields.

李嘉图和马尔萨斯建立了古典模型。这个模型假设技术变化是恒定的，增加投入可能导致收益递减。这导致了马尔萨斯的悲观预测--人口的增长速度将超过世界的供养能力。马尔萨斯对技术改进提高粮食产量的能力预估不足。

Neo-Classical model of Solow/Swan 索洛/斯旺的新古典主义模型

The neo-classical theory of economic growth suggests that increasing capital or labour leads to diminishing returns. Therefore, increasing capital has only a temporary and limited impact on increasing the economic growth. As capital increases, the economy maintains its steady-state rate of economic growth.

新古典主义的经济增长理论认为，增加资本或劳动会导致收益递减。因此，增加资本对提高经济增长只有暂时和有限的影响。随着资本的增加，经济会保持其稳定的经济增长率。

To increase the rate of economic growth in the Solow/Swan model we need 为了提高索洛/斯旺模型中的经济增长速度，我们需要:

An increase in proportion of GDP that is invested – however, this is limited as higher proportion of investment leads to diminishing returns and convergence on the steady-state of growth 增加投资占GDP的比例--然而，这是有限的，因为较高的投资比例会导致收益递减和向增长的稳定状态靠拢Technological progress which increases productivity of capital/labour 技术进步，提高资本/劳动的生产力

It suggests poor countries who invest more should see their economic growth converge with richer countries. 它表明，投资较多的穷国应该看到他们的经济增长与较富裕的国家趋同。

Criticisms of this neo-classical (Exogenous model) 对这种新古典主义（外生模式）的批评

It doesn’t explain why countries have different levels of investment as % of GDP 它没有解释为什么各国的投资占GDP的比例不同Some developing countries don’t attract higher levels of investment because of structural problems such as corruption, lack of infrastructure. 一些发展中国家由于结构性问题，如腐败、缺乏基础设施等，无法吸引更高水平的投资It doesn’t explain how to improve rates of technological progress. 它没有解释如何提高技术进步率

Harrod Domar model – Savings Ratio and Investment 哈罗德-多玛尔模型--储蓄率和投资

The Harrod-Domar model is a type of neo-classical model. It states growth rate depends on a function of the savings rate.

哈罗德-多马尔模型是一种新古典主义模型。它指出增长率取决于储蓄率的一个函数。

Some growth theories place a large emphasis on increasing domestic savings. Savings provide the necessary funds to finance investment. It is this investment which creates further growth. This has been an important factor behind the economic growth in Asia.

一些增长理论非常强调增加国内储蓄。储蓄提供了必要的资金来资助投资。正是这种投资创造了进一步的增长。这一直是亚洲经济增长的一个重要因素。

However, it depends on how efficient the investment is. If savings is too high it leads to lower growth because people cannot afford to consume.

然而，这取决于投资的效率如何。如果储蓄太高，就会导致增长下降，因为人们无法负担消费。

New Economic Growth Theories (Endogenous growth) 新经济增长理论（内生性增长）

Endogenous growth models, developed by Paul Romer and Robert Lucas placed greater emphasis on the concept of human capital. How workers with greater knowledge, education and training can help to increase rates of technological advancement.

由保罗-罗默和罗伯特-卢卡斯开发的内生增长模型更加强调人力资本的概念。拥有更多知识、教育和培训的工人如何能够帮助提高技术进步的速度。

They place greater importance on the need for governments to actively encourage technological innovation. They argue in the free market classical view, firms may have no incentive to invest in new technologies because they will struggle to benefit in competitive markets. The model

他们更加重视政府积极鼓励技术创新的必要性。他们认为，在自由市场的经典观点中，企业可能没有投资新技术的动力，因为他们将在竞争性市场中难以获益。该模式

Places emphasis on increasing both capital and labour productivity. 强调提高资本和劳动生产率States that increasing labour productivity does not have diminishing returns, but, may have increasing returns 指出提高劳动生产率不会有递减的回报，但可能有增加的回报。They argue that increasing capital does not necessarily lead to diminishing returns as Solow predicts. They say it is more complicated; it depends on the type of capital investment. 他们认为，增加资本不一定会像索洛预测的那样导致收益递减。他们说这是更复杂的；它取决于资本投资的类型。Increased importance of spillover benefits from a knowledge-based economy. 知识型经济的外溢效益的重要性增加Emphasis is placed on free-markets, reducing regulation and subsidies. The argument is that we need to keep economies open to the forces of change. 强调了自由市场，减少监管和补贴。其论点是，我们需要保持经济对变革力量的开放

Joseph Schumpeter argued that an inherent feature of capitalism was the ‘creative destruction’ – allowing inefficient firms to fail was essential for allowing resources to flow to more efficient channels.

约瑟夫-熊彼特认为，资本主义的一个固有特征是 "创造性破坏"--允许效率低下的公司倒闭，对于让资源流向更有效的渠道至关重要。

Unified growth theory 统一增长理论

Developed by Oded Galor, unified growth theory tries to combine many different elements of economic growth 由Oded Galor提出的统一增长理论试图结合经济增长的许多不同因素

Economic stagnation that characterized most of human history until the eighteenth century 十八世纪前人类历史上大部分时间的经济停滞现象First industrial revolution and the beginning of economic growth 第一次工业革命和经济增长的开始The role of human capital formation in economic growth 人力资本形成在经济增长中的作用Explaining divergence in economic growth across countries. 解释不同国家经济增长的差异

Economic Growth for Developing Countries 发展中国家的经济增长

Other theories have been suggested for developing countries. Amartya Sen and Joseph Stiglitz. 有人为发展中国家提出了其他理论。Amartya Sen 和 Joseph Stiglitz。

The Malthus Predictions 马尔萨斯的预言

It is argued that economic growth may have limitations caused by lack of raw materials, climate change and overcrowding. Given the failure of T.Malthus predictions to come true, these theories are often rubbished. Nevertheless, there may come a time when growth is constrained by environmental factors.

有观点认为，经济增长可能会因为原材料的缺乏、气候变化和过度拥挤而受到限制。鉴于马尔萨斯的预测未能成真，这些理论经常被驳斥。然而，可能有一天，增长会受到环境因素的限制。